t his paper investigates the existence of possible spillover effects among four main asset markets namely foreign exchange, stock, gold, and housing markets in iran from 2002:03 to 2015:06. for this purpose, we have exploited sigma-point kalman filter (spkf) to extract the bubble component of assets prices in the aforementioned markets. then, in order to analyze the price bubbles spillover amon...

abstract this paper attempts to re-investigate the catching-up (stochastic convergence) hypothesis among the selected 16 oecd countries applying the time series approach of convergence hypothesis with annual data over one century. to reach this aim, we propose a model which specifies a trend function, incorporating both types of structural breaks – that is, sharp breaks and smooth shifts using ...

Within the approaches that have been applied to assess the impact of public capital on economic growth, this paper estimates the dynamic effects of public infrastructures using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology for the Spanish regions. From a methodological point of view, our work contains different innovative features with respect to the previous studies using VAR models. T...

in this research, potential effects of oil and monetary policy shocks on economic growth of iran are examined and share of each of them on economic growth are calculated during 1974-2006 period and potential mutual effects of those shocks by using the vector auto regressive (var) model are analysed. results of this research show that oil shocks significantly affected the economic growth in iran...

This paper deals with the existence of a common European growth cycle and its identification. Based on the analysis of some descriptive statistics in the time and frequency domain there is clear evidence of comovement in output growth among European countries. Univariate Markov switching autoregressions (MS-AR) are used for individual countries in order to detect changes in the mean growth rate...

We disaggregate consumption growth into components with different levels of persistence and show that a single business-cycle consumption factor can explain satisfactorily the differences in risk premia across book-to-market and size-sorted portfolios. We argue that accounting for persistence heterogeneity in consumption is important for interpreting cross-sectional risk compensations in financ...

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM) and traces this syndrome...

Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. The uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from a range of approaches will improve for...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain ...

This Paper describes a procedure for constructing theory restricted prior distributions for BVAR models. The Bayes Factor, which is obtained without any additional computational effort, can be used to assess the plausibility of the restrictions imposed on the VAR parameter vector by competing DSGE models. In other words, it is possible to rank the amount of abstraction implied by each DSGE mode...