A seasonal additive nonlinear vector autoregression (SANVAR) model is proposed for multivariate seasonal time series to explore the possible interaction among the various univariate series. Significant lagged variables are selected and additive autoregression functions estimated based on the selected variables using spline smoothing method. Conservative confidence bands are constructed for the ...

It is often unclear whether time series displaying substantial persistence should be modelled as a vector autoregression in levels (perhaps with a trend term) or in differences. The impact of this decision on inference is examined here using Monte Carlo simulation. In particular, the size and power of variable inclusion (Granger causality) tests and the coverage of impulse response function con...

This article focuses on the electricity industry and electricity consumption of population and industrial enterprises in Russia is analyzed. Economic factors that affect energy consumption are studied by the Vector Autoregression Analysis (VAR). The relationship between variables is defined by Granger test, and it also considers scenarios of reactions of electricity consumption on exogenous sho...

We calculate the NAIRU for the U.S. in a framework where inflation and the unemployment rate can respond to each other. The NAIRU is defined as the component of the actual unemployment rate that is uncorrelated with inflation in the long run. Using a structural VAR approach, the NAIRU and core inflation can be estimated simultaneously. Our estimation results show that the NAIRU falls dramatical...

The development of digital transformation is critical for innovation and surviving the crisis being a sustainable focus. This study aims to observe relationship between selected macroeconomic variables in accelerating economic growth recovery at regional level. data used panel from 2018Q1 - 2020Q4 three Sumatra provinces, namely South Sumatra, Aceh, Lampung. method Panel Vector Autoregression (...

This study implemented Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) Model to examine short-run dynamic relationships between inflation rate, population and unemployment rate as function of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Economic Community West Africa States (ECOWAS) counties. To achieve this, secondary data was sourced Population, Inflation Unemployment GDP from National Bureau Statistics, Nigeria ECOW...