Forecasts of various quantities over multiple time periods and/or spatial expanses are required to operate modern power systems. Furthermore, probabilistic forecasts necessary facilitate economic decision-making and risk management. This gives rise the challenge producing which capture dependency between variables, time, locations. The Gaussian Copula has been widely used for multivariate energ...

The present paper deals with development of a simulation model for the performance evaluation of feed water system of a thermal power plant using Markov Birth-Death process and probabilistic approach. In present paper, the feed water system consists of four subsystems. After drawing transition diagram for feed water system, differential equations are developed and then solved recursively using ...

The scientific study article(a monograph) , presents a forecast and estimate the evolution of the market demand. Key-Words: fuzzy sets, forecasting, estimating, statistical extrapolation, market demand. 1 Problem formulation Methods for forecasting 1.1 Probabilistic Model [10] The methods operate with certain statistical parameters. The most frequently used is the mean square deviation, namely:...

Probabilistic forecasting models describe the aleatory variability of natural systems as well as our epistemic uncertainty about how the systems work. Testing a model against observations exposes ontological errors in the representation of a system and its uncertainties. We clarify several conceptual issues regarding the testing of probabilistic forecasting models for ontological errors: the am...

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational farms. This paper describes novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical conditions during crew transfers. Methods generating density significant wave height peak period are developed evaluated. It found that boosted sem...

Today, the energy supply does not follow demand in a controlled manner anymore. Thus, forecasting electricity consumption became essential for operation of power systems. Already numerous open source software tools exist that provide models, which are configurable different tasks. In case electrical demand, change geographical or temporal settings, requires specific domain knowledge on relevant...