We develop and test a model of initial play for symmetric normal-form games with multiple Nash equilibria. First, we specify an encompassing model that incorporates both equilibrium selection principles and boundedly rational behavioral models. We then design experimental games that can identify a variety of equilibrium selection principles. Model comparisons and hypothesis tests indicate that:...

Human reasoning in hypothesis-testing tasks like Wason's (1966, 1968) selection task has been depicted as prone to systematic biases. However, performance on this task has been assessed against a now outmoded falsificationist philosophy of science. Therefore, the experimental data is reassessed in the light of a Bayesian model of optimal data selection in inductive hypothesis testing. The model...