A toy climate analogous to the famous Lorenz system [1] is derived and compared to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations in order to test new modeling techniques. In particular, methods of data assimilation and ensemble forecasting are used to predict regime changes and residencies in this toy climate. A climate “truth” is created using a finite-element simulation of a thermal convecti...

This paper studies endogenous information manipulation in games where a population can overthrow a regime if individuals coordinate. The benchmark game has a unique equilibrium and in this equilibrium propaganda is effective if signals are sufficiently precise. Despite playing against perfectly rational individuals, a regime is able to manipulate information in a way that exploits heterogeneity...

Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift...