Conditional quantile estimation is an essential ingredient in modern risk management. Although GARCH processes have proven highly successful in modeling financial data it is generally recognized that it would be useful to consider a broader class of processes capable of representing more flexibly both asymmetry and tail behavior of conditional returns distributions. In this paper, we study esti...

Previous studies of the information content of the implied volatilities from the prices of call options have used a cross-sectional regression approach. This paper compares the information content of the implied volatilities from call options on the S&P 100 index to GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) and Exponential GARCH models of conditional volatility. By addin...

Since their introduction by Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), respectively, autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models have found extraordinarily wide use. The survey article by Bollerslev, Chou, and Kroner (1982) cited more than 300 papers applying ARCH, GARCH, and other closely related models. As they showed, A...

We study in depth the properties of the GARCH(1,1) model and the assumptions on the parameter space under which the process is stationary. In particular, we prove ergodicity and strong stationarity for the conditional variance (squared volatility) of the process. We show under which conditions higher order moments of the GARCH(1,1) process exist and conclude that GARCH processes are heavy-taile...

The class of Multivariate BiLinear GARCH (MBL-GARCH) models is proposed and its statistical properties are investigated. The model can be regarded as a generalization to a multivariate setting of the univariate BLGARCH model proposed by Storti and Vitale (2003a; 2003b). It is shown how MBL-GARCH models allow to account for asymmetric effects in both conditional variances and correlations. An EM...

We propose a generalization of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH model of Engle (2002) and of the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation model of Cappiello et al. (2006). The model we propose introduces a block structure in parameter matrices that allows for interdependence with a reduced number of parameters. Our model nests the Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation...

In our present study, GARCH family models are used for modeling and forecasting the rice yield of four provinces of Pakistan during the period of 1947-48 to 2008-09. Also Auto regressive, moving average and Autoregressive moving average models are described. Thus, the selected GARCH models for all provinces are also presented for forecasting purpose on the basis of two criteria AIC (Akaike info...

Purpose This paper aims to examine real estate price volatility in Hong Kong. Monthly data on housing, offices, retail and factories Kong were analyzed from February 1993 2019 test whether clusters are present the market. Real determinants also investigated. Design/methodology/approach Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity–Lagrange multiplier is used clustering effects these four kinds ...

Purpose: The research investigated variation of cattle prices in Nigeria. Specifically, the research: determined presence volatility prices, degree and estimated level persistence prices.
 Methodology: Multi-stage simple random (balotting) sampling techniques were used to select two states each from five out six geo-political zones Nigeria, except South-East zone which was not represented ...

Financial returns are often modeled as autoregressive time series with innovations having conditional heteroscedastic variances, especially with GARCH processes. The conditional distribution in GARCH models is assumed to follow a parametric distribution. Typically, this error distribution is selected without justification. In this paper, we have applied the results of Thavaneswaran and Ghahrama...