This paper provides a background discussion of agent -based modeling (ABM) and simulation of strategic scenarios. Causal mapping is introduced as a structured method for situational formulation and analysis of unstructured strategic problems. Causal mapping includes specific processes and analytical approaches offering cognitive modeling support for problem formulation and scenario planning. A ...

Social systems are changing so rapidly that it is important for humans to make decisions considering uncertainty. A scenario is information about the series of events/actions, which supports decision makers to take actions and reduce risks. We propose Action Planning for refining simple ideas into practical scenarios (strategic scenarios). Frameworks and items on Action Planning Sheets provide ...

Article history: Received 12 August 2012 Received in revised form 10 June 2013 Accepted 16 August 2013 Available online 13 September 2013 An action case study demonstrates an effective integration of collaborative planning using long-range foresight in a hierarchical government research organization. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of collaborative, bottom-up strategi...

Medium-term modeling of electricity market has essential role in generation expansion planning. On the other hand, uncertainties strongly affect modeling and consequently, strategic analysis of generation firms in the medium term. Therefore, models considering these uncertainties are highly required. Among uncertain variables considered in the medium term generation planning, demand and hyd...

For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the...

In today’s rapid changing market situations, many nations and companies try to keep or make better their situation and gain more market share by creating competitive advantages. Because of growing number of uncertain parameters in the environment and lack of information about the future, the strategic choice has become very complex and critical. One of the popular tools for solving the problem ...