This paper measured the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of the US Treasury yield changes. The US Treasury yield data were tested and found to be not normally distributed. Consequently, the mixture normal model (MNM) was used to improve the delta normal VaR and ES measures. It performed extraordinarily well in all cases, based on bootstrapping and mean square error tests. In addi...

Evidence from monetary VARs suggests that in the U.S., Canada, and U.K. impact of shocks on real house prices is about three to five times as large GDP. Although these trade-offs are not manifestly unfavorable, light differences magnitudes GDP fluctuations, a policy leaning against former would inevitably entail significant losses latter. I use identified order explore corresponding associated ...

Bi r th weight is in large extent influenced by gestational age. In addi tion genetic and envi ronmental factors determine intrauter ine growth and bi r th weight. The contr ibutions of these factors may be influenced by maternal smoking dur ing pregnancy. We examined bi r th weight and maternal smoking in a sample of 2930 twin pai rs from the Nether lands Twin Register using structural equatio...

Two F1 hybrids one between wild C. annuum var glabrisculum and C. frutescens (H1) and another between wild C. annuum var antigua and C. frutescens (H2) were obtained. Cytogenetic analysis of F1 hybrids showed that the parental genomes differ from each other by 2 or 1 translocations, 1 inversion and some minor structural alterations leading to reduced homologies between the respective parental g...

A systems cointegration rank test is proposed that is applicable for vector autoregressive (VAR) processes with a structural shift at unknown time. The structural shift is modeled as a simple shift in the level of the process. It is proposed to estimate the break date first on the basis of a full unrestricted VAR model. Two alternative estimators are considered and their asymptotic properties a...

The var gene family encodes Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane 1 (PfEMP1) proteins that act as virulence factors responsible for both antigenic variation and cytoadherence of infected erythrocytes. These proteins orchestrate infected erythrocyte sequestration from blood circulation and contribute to adhesion-based complications of P. falciparum malaria infections. For this study, we ana...

This paper compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of five classes of time series models for market shares of the six most important Portuguese car market competitors over different horizons. As representative time series models I employ a random walk with drift (Naive), a univariate ARIMA, a near-VAR and a general BVAR. The out-of-sample forecasts are also compared against forecasts ge...

UNLABELLED The accumulation of genomic structural variation between closely related populations over time can lead to reproductive isolation and speciation. The fungal pathogen Cryptococcus is thought to have recently diversified, forming a species complex containing members with distinct morphologies, distributions, and pathologies of infection. We have investigated structural changes in genom...

We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. discuss several implications: (i) LP VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they simply two dimension reduction techniques with common estimand but different finite?sample properties. (ii) VAR...