This paper develops a simple but general methodology to estimate the expected intertemporal marginal rate of substitution or “EMRS”, using only data on asset prices and returns. Our empirical strategy is general, and allows the EMRS to vary arbitrarily over time. A novel feature of our technique is that it relies upon exploiting idiosyncratic risk, since theory dictates that idiosyncratic shock...

This article empirically examines the relationship between order sizes and spreads in the foreign exchange market based on a FX dealer’s quotes. It is found that spreads are independent of order sizes in the inter-dealer market, but they are negatively correlated in the customer market. JEL classification: F31; G14

â â â  â â â â â  the main purpose of present study is to analyze the relationship between stock and exchange markets in two asian countries, iran and south korea. a monthly time series of stock price and exchange rate are used over the period 2002: 05 - 2012: 03. the data is collected from the central bank of each country and wdi. the calculated stock return and real exchange rate change are u...

Using 5-year credit default swap (CDS) contracts on 1,247 U.S. firms from 2003 2011, we show a 3-month formation and 1-month holding period CDS momentum strategy yields 52 bps per month. By incorporating past CDS return signals, we further show traditional stock momentum strategies avoid abrupt losses during the crisis period and improve their performance by net 104 bps per month. Both within C...

Technical traders base their analysis on the premise that the patterns in market prices are assumed to recur in the future, and thus, these patterns can be used for predictive purposes. This paper uses the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1897 to 1988 to examine the linear and nonlinear predictability of stock market returns with simple technical trading rules. The nonlinear specif...

Methodologically, this paper frames the opportunity cost of any merger as the value of the alternative deals it precludes or defers. This challenges the standard eventstudy hypothesis that stock markets benchmark the value of a merger deal by the profits the partners would have earned in stand-alone activity. Substantively, the paper finds that megamergers in banking show two size-related excep...

oil-exporting economies largely dependent on oil revenues and oil income fluctuation are one of the most important factors that influence sectors of the economy specially the stock market. this paper investigate the relationship between oil markets and stock return volatility and transmission in a selection of opec countries, using a multivariate garch models (full-vech) over the period may 201...

This paper investigates whether the degree of predictability can be explained by existing asset pricing models, and provides two theoretical upper bounds on the R-square of the regression of stock returns on predictors for given classes of models of interest. Empirically, we find that the predictive R-square is significantly larger than the upper bounds permitted by well known asset pricing mod...

Donald Trump’s election was a significant surprise. The reaction of company stock prices to the election reflects shifts in investor expectations about economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. High-beta stocks outperformed, presumably due to strengthened growth expectations. Expectations of significant corporate tax cuts boosted high-tax firms, but hurt firms with significant net operating los...

The consensus wisdom of active mutual fund managers, as reflected in their average overand underweighting decisions, contains valuable information about future stock returns. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of active U.S. equity funds 1984—2008, we find that stocks heavily overweighted by active funds outperform their underweighted counterparts by more than 7% per year, after adjustments for t...