We investigate the ability of a tax-based fundamental—the ratio of tax-to-book income— to predict earnings growth and stock returns and to explain the earnings-price ratio. This tax fundamental reflects both temporary and permanent book-tax differences as well as tax accruals, such as changes in the tax valuation allowance. We find that the tax-to-book income ratio predicts subsequent five-year...

This dissertation consists of two essays. The first essay provides a rational explanation of the mysterious earnings discontinuity phenomenon. It also develops two new empirical predictions which are supported by the empirical tests. The second essay identifies conditions under which leading indicator variables discourage long-term investment. Essay 1: Discontinuity in Earnings Distribution: A ...

This paper uses Social Security Administration longitudinal earnings micro data since 1937 to analyze the evolution of inequality and mobility in the United States. Earnings inequality follows a U-shape pattern, decreasing sharply up to 1953 and increasing steadily afterwards. We find that short-term and long-term (rank based) mobility among all workers has been quite stable since 1950 (after a...

We investigate the ability of a tax-based fundamental—the ratio of taxto-book income—to predict earnings growth and stock returns and to explain the earnings-price ratio. This tax fundamental reflects both temporary and permanent book-tax differences as well as tax accruals, such as changes in the tax valuation allowance. We find that the tax-to-book income ratio predicts subsequent five-year e...

tive workers. This article Summary involves introducing a fundamentally new describes two new methods for kind of pension formula. estimating the career profile In order to assess the effect of Social This article presents two broad of earnings for representative Security reform on current and future approaches to creating representative workers. It then compares the results of those new method...

This paper uses Social Security Administration longitudinal earnings micro data since 1937 to analyze the evolution of inequality and mobility in the United States. Earnings inequality follows a U-shape pattern, decreasing sharply up to 1953 and increasing steadily afterwards. We find that short-term (rank based) mobility among all workers has been quite stable since 1950 (after a temporary sur...

My dissertation examines the stock market’s assessment of corporate mandatory and voluntary disclosure. Specifically, the first part of the dissertation investigates the stock market reaction to the mandatory segment reporting changes and the second part studies how the stock market assesses credibility of voluntary management forecasts. The dissertation is composed of two essays. The first ess...

We use linked administrative data from program and earnings records to summarize the 2007 employment rates of Social Security disability program beneficiaries at the national and state levels, as well as changes in employment since 1996. The findings provide new information on the employment activities of beneficiaries that should be useful in assessing current agency policies and providing ben...

While Wall Street closely watches financial analysts’ earnings forecasts, Main Street often scrutinizes product quality relative to competition. Do firms with superior product competitiveness enjoy greater likelihood of beating analyst earnings target? And if so, is there contingency in this impact? We show that positive changes in product competitiveness contribute to the firm’s likelihood of ...