The paper analyses the relationship between shadow economy and unemployment rates using a Structural VAR approach for quarterly data during the period 2000-2010. The size of Romanian shadow economy is estimated using the currency demand approach based on VECM models, stating that its size is decreasing over the analyzed period, from 36.5% at the end of 2000 to about 31.5% of real GDP at the mid...

Mazandaran province is one of the most important agricultural areas in Iran. Researches findings show that the role of bank credits is really important due to the lack of available funds in agricultural sector. In this study, the relationship between allocation of Agricultural Bank credits of Iran as professional bank section and agricultural employment was studied in the Mazandaran province ba...

The log-likelihood function of threshold vector error correction models is neither differentiable, nor smooth with respect to some parameters. Therefore, it is very difficult to implement maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the model. A new estimation method, which is based on a hybrid algorithm and MLE, is proposed to resolve this problem. The hybrid algorithm, referred to as genetic-simula...

We develop a test for the linear no cointegration null hypothesis in a threshold vector error correction model. We adopt a sup-Wald type test and derive its null asymptotic distribution. A residual-based bootstrap is proposed, and the first-order consistency of the bootstrap is established. A set of Monte Carlo simulations shows that the bootstrap corrects size distortion of asymptotic distribu...

the prime objective of the study is to identify the long-run and short-run relationship between indian stock price viz., bse sensex (hereafter named as bse) and gold price (gold) in india. the daily closing price data were collected for the period of ten years ranging from 1st april 2004 to 31st march 2014 with 2490 observations. the study employed two models: model one used gold as dependent v...

Since Quenouille’s influential work on multiple time series, much progress has been made towards the goal of parameter reduction and model fit. Relatively less attention has been paid to the systematic evaluation of out-of-sample forecast performance of multivariate time series models. In this paper, we update the hog data set studied by Quenouille (and other researchers who followed him). We r...