This study compares two new seasonal adjustment methods designed to handle outliers and structural changes: X-IZARIMA and GAUSUM-STM. X12-ARIMA is a successor to the X-ll-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method, and is being developed at the U.S. Bureau of the Census (Findley et al. (1988)). GAUSUM-STM is a non-Gaussian method using time series structural models, and was developed for this study based...

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is one of the most popular linear models for time series forecasting due to its nice statistical properties and great flexibility. However, its parameters are estimated in a batch manner and its noise terms are often assumed to be strictly bounded, which restricts its applications and makes it inefficient for handling large-scale real data. In th...

A time series forecasting is an active research applied significantly in a variety of economics areas. Over the past three decades an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, as one of the most important time series models, has been applied in financial markets forecasting. Recent researches in time series forecasting ARIMA models indicate some basic limitations which detract fr...

This paper outlines the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Irish inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. It considers two alternative approaches to the issue of identifying ARIMA models the Box Jenkins approach and the objective penalty function methods. The emphasis is on forec...

Network traffic prediction plays a vital role in the optimal resource allocation and management in computer networks. This paper introduces an ARIMA based model for the real time prediction of VBR video traffic. The methodology presented here can successfully addresses the challenges in traffic prediction such as accuracy in prediction, resource management and utilization. ARIMA application on ...

Statistical evidence suggests that the autocorrelation function of a compressed-video sequence is better captured by (k) = e ? p k than by (k) = k ? = e ? log k (long-range dependence) or (k) = e ?k (Markovian). A video model with such a correlation structure is introduced based on the so-called M=G=1 input processes. Though not Markovian, the model exhibits short-range dependence. Using the qu...

In this article, we forecast crude oil and natural gas spot prices at a daily frequency based on two classification techniques: artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark, we utilize an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) specification. We evaluate outof-sample forecast based on encompassing tests and mean-squared prediction error (MSPE). We ...

Statistical evidence suggests that the autocorrelation function of a compressed-video sequence is better captured by p(k) = e–~fi than by p(k) = k–fi = e–~’og k (long-range dependence) or p(k) = e-~k (Markovian). A video model with such a correlation structure is introduced based on the so-called M/G/ca input processes. Though not Markovian, the model exhibits short-range dependence. Using the ...

Stochastic models that estimate the ground-level ozone concentrations in air at an urban and rural sampling points in South-eastern Spain have been developed. Studies of temporal series of data, spectral analyses of temporal series and ARIMA models have been used. The ARIMA model (1,0,0) x (1,0,1)24 satisfactorily predicts hourly ozone concentrations in the urban area. The ARIMA (2,1,1) x (0,1,...