This paper shows entropic tilting to be a flexible and powerful tool for combining mediumterm forecasts from BVARs with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting systematically improves the accuracy of both point and density forecasts, and tilting the BVAR forecasts based on nowcast means and variances yields slightly greater gains in densit...

In the assessment of governments’ fiscal performance, exchange rates play some roles while capital movements could serve as determinant discipline. This study examined effects rate devaluation, and inflows, on budgetary spending, interactions among variables using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) sys-generalized method moments (GMM) estimators with 1,184 panel observations. The covers 37 e...

Working papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded offi cial Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Ban...

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal a...

1 Chris Laing, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] 2 Alan Robinson, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] Abstract  Previously it has been proposed that explanations of non-traditional withdrawal might be defined by the underlying characteristics of the teaching and learn...