For the 1960–2000 period, latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 [CMIP6]) shows less global mean surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial than that seen in observations. In contrast, previous (CMIP5) performed well over this period. It has been hypothesized suppressed late-20th Century warming CMIP6 is caused by a stronger aerosol forcing...

This paper assesses the detectability of changes in global streamflow. First, a statistical detection method is applied to observed (no missing data which represent 42 % of global discharge) and reconstructed (gaps are filled in order to cover a larger area and about 60 % of global discharge) streamflow. Observations show no change over the 1958–1992 period. Further, an extension to 2004 over t...

[1] Substantial biases in shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) of up to 30 W m 2 are found in the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the historical simulations of 34 CMIP5 coupled general circulation models. The SWCF biases are shown to induce surface temperature anomalies localized in the midlatitudes, and are significantly correlated with the mean latitude of the eddy-driven jet, with a neg...

Abstract This study examines whether the spread in the climate sensitivity of CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models also captures the spread in the Southern Hemisphere dynamical response to greenhouse gas forcing. Three metrics are proposed to quantify the “dynamical sensitivity” of the Southern Hemisphere: the poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the poleward exp...

Using the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), simulations of the two types of El Niño event are evaluated. Previous studies using CMIP3 models pointed out that most of the models tend to simulate a single type of El Niño, and have serious problems in simulating the two types of El Niño indepen...

Although much of the energy gained by the climate system over the last century has been stored in the oceans, continental energy storage remains important to estimate the Earth’s energy imbalance and also because crucial positive climate feedback processes such as soil carbon and permafrost stability depend on continental energy storage. Here for the first time, 32 general circulation model sim...

introduction: hydrology cycle of river basins and water resources availability in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes, so that recently the increase of temperature due to the increase of greenhouse gases have led to anomaly in the earth’ climate system. at present, general circulation models (gcms) are the most frequently used models for projection of different cli...

1 The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is at present running simulations using state-of-theart models to provide information about the likely evolution of climate over the twenty-first century, with additional experiments to analyse the uncertainties inherent in these projections1. Models that perform equally well for present-day climate produce very different re...

Decadal variability of the East African precipitation during the season of March–May (long rains) is examined and the performance of a series of models in simulating the observed features is assessed. Observational results show that the drying trend of the long rains is associated with decadal natural variability associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the Pacific Ocean. E...