The basic idea behind such information markets is that the pricing scheme of the market encourages the participants to buy or sell shares in accordance to their private information. Consider, for example, the security that pays $1 if the winner of the 2008 US presidential elections is democrat. An agent who privately believes with probability p that US will have a democrat president in 2008, wi...

This paper analyzes how US presidential candidates should allocate resources across states to maximize the probability of winning the election, by developing and estimating a probabilisticvoting model of political competition under the Electoral College system. Actual campaigns act in close agreement with the model. There is a 0.9 correlation between equilibrium and actual presidential campaign...

This article provides an analysis of the Republican Party nomination for the presidential election of 2008 and discusses the result of the general election. It examines the campaigns of Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and John McCain as they battled their way through the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries. Candidates’ views on the issues, their fina...