This paper aims at improved accuracy in testing for long-run predictability in noisy series, such as stock market returns. Long-horizon regressions have previously been the dominant approach in this area. We suggest an alternative method that yields more accurate results. We find evidence of predictability in S&P 500 returns even when the confidence intervals are constructed using model-free me...

We develop a selective entry model for first-price auctions that nests several models earlier proposed in the literature, and features a pro-competitive selection effect. The selection effect is shown to be nonparametrically identifiable, and a nonparametric test for its presence is proposed. In the empirical application to highway procurement, we find that the selection effect overwhelms the a...

We show that the quantile regression estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal when the error terms are correlated within clusters but independent across clusters. A consistent estimator of the covariance matrix of the asymptotic distribution is provided and we propose a specification test capable of detecting the presence of intra-cluster correlation. A small simulation study illustrat...

This paper proposes a simple direct testing procedure to distinguish a linear unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. We derive the asymptotic null distribution of the Wald statistic, and show that it does not depend on unknown fixed threshold values. Monte Carlo evidence clearly indicates that the exponential average of the Wald...

In this paper, we examine the specification tests which have been proposed for fixed effects in binary panel data model, using several different data generating processes to evaluate the performance of the specification test in different situations. By simulations, we find the specification test based on moment conditions is able to outperform the Lagrange multiplier test proposed by Gurmu (199...

We examine in this article the power of the tests of Robinson (1994) for testing I(d) statistical models in the presence of moving average (MA) disturbances. The results show that the tests behave relatively well if we correctly assume that the disturbances are MA. However, assuming white noise or autoregressive disturbances, the power of the tests against one-sided alternatives is very low. JE...

Economists have recently adopted pre-analysis plans in response to concerns about robustness and transparency research. The increased use of registered has raised competing that detailed are costly create, overly restrictive, limit the type inspiration stems from exploratory analysis. We consider these views plans, make a careful distinction between roles registries, which provide record all pl...

This paper evaluates the impact of China’s WTO accession on patterns of world trade and economic growth by a recursive dynamic, 17-region, 25-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with import embodied technology transfer based on actual market access commitments that China and Taiwan have made to date. The simulation results show that the major gains from WTO accession would accrue ...

s teel industries play a key role in the national economy and welfare of the society in many steel manufacturer countries. it is found that manufacturing and consuming of steel products would be a key indicator to measure and evaluate economic and industrial performance of a country. nowadays, countries with the large natural oil and gas resources (e.g. iran) attempt to select an alternative ec...

For what kind of intermediate input/service do firms often go outsourcing? This paper develops a model of two-stage production in which economies of scope are central to the production of both the intermediate and final good. The model is able to explain the patterns of outsourcing from the degree of product differentiation, economies of scope, and economies of scale in production of the interm...