Crude oil exerts a strong influence on national economy. Changes of international crude oil price have an important effect on Chinese economy because of China’s high dependence on the import of the crude oil. Thus, Chinese stock market can be shocked by the fluctuation of oil price. Reversely, changes in crude oil imports of China have some effect on demands and price of the crude oil. This art...

Crude oil is one of the most necessitated worldwide required commodities. Any slight fluctuation in crude oil prices can have both direct and indirect influence on the economy of the countries. The unpredictability of crude oil prices forced many companies away from the competition and it influence the stock market and many other macroeconomic variables (inflation, GDP, Import bill etc). Crude ...

Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher price...

In this study, the crude oil spot price is forecast using Bayesian symbolic regression (BSR). particular, initial parameters specification of BSR analysed. Contrary to conventional approach regression, which based on genetic programming methods, applies algorithms evolve set expressions (functions). This econometric method able deal with variable uncertainty (feature selection) issues in foreca...