Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different modelling approaches are specialist areas in themselves. Model development can be onerous, expensive, time consuming, and often bewildering. It is also an iterative process where ...

Traditional models of decision-making assume the existence of an external frame of reference for measuring the value of possible outcomes. We show that this fundamental assumption prevents classical decision models from predicting realistic decision-making behavior. Making an alternative relativistic assumption about the nature of reward leads us to formalize a rational agent as one which minim...

The aim of the paper is to propose a preferences representation under risk where risk perception can be past experience dependent. A first step consists in considering a one period decision problem where individual preferences are no more defined only on decisions but on pairs (decision, past experience). The obtained criterion is used in the construction of a dynamic choice model under risk. T...

Modelling LGD for unsecured personal loans: Decision tree approach Lyn C. Thomas Christophe Mues Anna Matuszyk University of Southampton Abstract The Basel New Accord which is being implemented throughout the banking world on 1 January 2007 has made a significant difference to the use of modelling within financial organisations. In particular it has highlighted the importance of Loss Given Defa...

The general objective of the Argo project is to build a process-centred environment kernel, providing assistance and active guidance to its users. Thanks to an hybrid approach of process modelling, both task-oriented and decision-oriented, it can be customized to support a broad range of collective design activities. The concept of issue is central to the modelling approach, both on the design ...

This paper describes the application of online analytical processing (OLAP) in the field of data mining. We discuss knowledge discovery in enterprise databases as well as data warehouses. We then present an enterprise decision modelling application. This internet application stores requests, mistakes and defects that are notified by customers for software modules. Data are retrieved from Oracle...

Researchers and practitioners have been developing a wide range of techniques and tools to model and manage variability as a response to the heterogeneity of application areas and the diversity of implementation practices in different domains. In our own research we have been developing a tool-supported approach to decision-oriented variability modelling, which is highly customizable to domain-...

Illegal migration from Mexico into the United States has long led to discussions of the proper form of enforcement along the border. Past border enforcement expansion has targeted speci…c sectors rather than across the board budget increases. We assess the implications of this pattern by examining how Mexican immigrants have responded to sector-speci…c expansions in border enforcement. We estim...

This Essay has two goals. The first is to present an economic theory of preemption as a choice among regulatory regimes. The optimal regime choice model is used to generate specific implications for the court decisions on preemption of products liability claims. The second objective is to extrapolate from the regime choice model to consider its implications for broader controversies about preem...