In this paper we will assume the following framework. There is a finite state set I, with i E Z as its generic member, 1 < i < m. For each ie Z, there is a finite action set K(i), with k E K(i) as its generic member. For each i E Z, k E K(i), there is a transition probability, p(i, j, k), that if at a decision epoch the state is i E Z, and if action k E K(i) is taken, then the state will be Jo ...

In this paper I analyze how careerist decision makers aggregate and use information provided by others. I find that decision makers who are motivated by reputation concerns tend to ‘anti-herding’, i.e., they excessively contradict public information such as the prior or others’ recommendations. I also find that some decision makers may deliberately act unilaterally and not consult advisers alth...

This paper discusses how limited ability to predict illness and treatment response may affect the welfare achieved in patient care. The discussion covers both decentralized clinical decision making and care that adheres to clinical practice guidelines. I explain why predictive ability has been limited, calling attention to questionable methodological practices in the research that supports evid...

When I set out to recruit highly educated people with specialized training in decision making, I anticipated that it would be a difficult project. The reason I wanted to study this group was that I had been obtaining some very startling results in decision-making experiments with undergraduates (Birnbaum & Navarrete, 1998; Birnbaum, Patton, & Lott, 1999). Undergraduates were systematically viol...

In this paper the lexicographic decision process is presented in a unified way. We construct a lexicographic decision function using a universal preference function and a unary function. This construction incorporates the different outranking approaches,the lexicographic decision process and the utility based decision making models. Finally we consider the connection of the lexicographic decisi...

There is a finite set of states: Ω = {ω1, . . . , ωn} where n ∈ N. An experiment P is an n ×N matrix {Pij}i=1,...,n;j=1,...,N , where N ∈ N, such that Pij ≥ 0 for all i, j and ∑N j=1 Pij = 1 for all i = 1, . . . , n. We shall call such a matrix a “Markov matrix.” The interpretation is that Pij is the probability of observing experiment outcome j in state ωi. The decision maker conducts experime...

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES To reveal the decision-making process in patients considering participation in cancer phase I clinical trials. DESIGN Grounded theory approach. SETTING Cancer center in a metropolitan area of Tokyo, Japan. PARTICIPANTS 25 patients with cancer, including individuals who ultimately declined to participate in a phase I trial. METHODOLOGIC APPROACH Semistructured intervie...

One potential use of Natural Language Generation (nlg) systems is to generate texts that help users make decisions. I summarise current and previous work in this area, and explain why I think decision support is potentially a very promising application of nlg. I also briefly describe some of the research challenges in generating decision support texts, and introduce the new BabyTalk project at ...

In the context of decision making under uncertainty, I formalize the concept of analogy: an Analogy between two decision problems is a mapping that transforms one problem into the other while preserving the problem’s structure. After identifying the basic structure of a decision problem, I introduce the concepts of Analogical Reasoning Operator and of Analogical Reasoning Preference. The former...