Credit risk is quantified by the loss distribution due to unexpected changes in the credit quality of the counterparty in a financial contract. Default correlation risk refers to the risk that a bundle of risky obligors may default together. To understand the clustering phenomena in correlated defaults, we consider credit contagion models which describe the propagation of financial distress fro...

This paper develops a methodology for modeling and estimating expected loss over arbitrary horizons. We jointly model the probability of default and the recovery rate given default. Different model specifications are estimated using an extensive default and recovery data set that contains the majority of defaults between 1980–2004 of AMEX, NYSE and NASDAQ listed companies. We undertake extensiv...

v:* {behavior:url(#default#vml);} o:* {behavior:url(#default#vml);} w:* {behavior:url(#default#vml);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#vml);} introduction: sleeping is one of the important biological needs of human beings which has an important role in maintaining health and quality of life. driving is one of the occupational groups in which the quality of sleep is of a great importance for job pe...

This paper explores a reasonable coupon rate for basket credit linked notes (CLN) with issuer default risk. Based on the one factor Gaussian copula model, this paper proposes three methods for incorporating issuer default into basket CLN pricing. Numerical results indicate that issuer default risk impacts basket CLN coupon rate. Furthermore, the coupon rate differs with changes in correlation s...

We develop a multicountry model in which default in one country triggers default in other countries. Countries are linked to one another by borrowing from and renegotiating with common lenders with concave payoffs. A foreign default increases incentives to default at home because it makes new borrowing more expensive and defaulting less costly. Foreign defaults tighten home bond prices because ...

This paper examines a new model of credit risk measurement, the Variance GammaMerton one, which seems to be adequate for describing single default occurrence and default correlation in turbulent times. It is based on the notion of business time. Business time runs faster than calendar time when the market is very active and a lot of information arrives; it runs at a slower pace than calendar ti...

Using a regime switching framework we investigate the determinants of default clustering. We find that a common credit cycle, modeled as a two-state Markov chain, can account for a large portion of default correlations, with the residual clustering being captured by a factor structure. During credit crunches default rates increase, and so does the conditional residual correlation. Using data fo...

The most common approach for default dependence modelling is at present copula functions. Within this framework, the paper examines factor copulas, which are the industry standard, together with their latest development, namely the incorporation of sudden jumps to default instead of a pure diffusive behavior. The impact of jumps on default dependence through factor copulas has not been fully ex...

We present a multi-dimensional jump-diffusion version of a structural default model and show how to use it in order to value the credit value adjustment for a credit default swap. We develop novel analytical and numerical methods for solving the corresponding boundary value problem with a special emphasis on the role of negative asset value jumps. Using recent market data, we show that under re...