In this paper we consider the nite sample properties of least squares system identi cation, and we derive non-asymptotic con dence ellipsoids for the estimate. Unlike asymptotic theory, the obtained con dence ellipsoids are valid for a nite number of data points. The probability that the estimate belongs to a certain ellipsoid has a natural dependence on the volume of the ellipsoid, the data ge...

In comparing two treatments with failure time observations, con®dence bands for the `̀ difference'' of two survival curves provide useful information about a global picture of the treatment difference over time. In this note, we propose a rather simple procedure for constructing such simultaneous con®dence intervals. Our technique can also be used in the one-sample case, which has been extensive...

The theory When reading a research report, the range of the CI provides assurance (or confi dence) regarding how precise the data are. CIs are calculated at a confi dence level, for example 95%. This level is predetermined by the researcher. Confi dence levels are usually calculated so that this percentage is 95% although others 90%, 99%, and 99.9% are sometimes applied. Researchers collect num...

This paper proposes an adaptive Mahalanobis distance for face retrieval. The distance is derived from a posterior distribution of observation errors in features categorized by con dence of face images. Since the distance is calculated considering error variances of each dimension according to the con dence, it can re ect error distribution of each matching more precisely than a standard Mahalan...

We characterize preference relations over bounded below Anscombe and Aumann’s acts and give necessary and su¢ cient conditions that guarantee the existence of a utility function u on consequences, a con…dence function ' on the set of all probabilities over states of nature and a positive threshold level of con…dence 0 such that our preference relation has a functional representation J , where g...

It is well known that conditional indepen­ dence can be used to factorize a joint prob­ ability into a multiplication of conditional probabilities. This paper proposes a con­ structive definition of intercausal indepen­ dence, which can be used to further factorize a conditional probability. An inference algo­ rithm is developed, which makes use of both conditional independence and intercausal ...

I study the use and overuse of private signals of fundamental value in a common type of experimental asset market. I also assess the impact of two kinds of psychological overcon…dence miscalibration, and the "better than average e¤ect" on the use of private signals, and on market outcomes. Traders use their private signals to make buying and selling decisions. Private signals also a¤ect traders...

Often when comparing the survival rates of individuals given either of two treatments the analysis stops with a test of the hypothesis of no treatment di erence and perhaps a plot of the two survival functions. The hypothesis test is usually a comparison of the two survival curves over the entire observational period. An alternative approach to this problem is to provide an investigator with a ...