Typically, cost–benefit analysis (CBA) has suggested ‘optimal’ carbon tax regimes that result in a global temperature rise of around 3 °C, or even eventually (post-2100) 4 °C, above preindustrial levels. However, risk analysis approaches indicate that these levels of temperature rise result in climate change impacts that pose a high or very high level of risk to society and ecosystems1 (Fig. 1)...