This paper develops a measure of U.S. monetary policy shocks for the period 1969–1996 that is relatively free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. Quantitative and narrative records are used to infer the Federal Reserve’s intentions for the federal funds rate around FOMC meetings. This series is regressed on the Federal Reserve’s internal forecasts to derive a measure free of systematic re...

In this paper, we evaluate the effects of monetary policy on inflation and unemployment under different institutional arrangements in the labor market. We show that the effects of monetary policy on the real economy depend critically on the wage formation regime, and on the ways in which the restrictiveness of policy interacts with product price competition, wage setting centralization and the ...

We study the interplay between competition and trust as efficiencyenhancing mechanims in the private provision of money. With commitment, trust is automatically achieved and competition ensures efficiency. Without commitment, competition plays no role. Trust does play a role but requires a bound on efficiency. Stationary inflation must be non-negative and, therefore, the Friedman rule cannot be...

A model is presented of a uniform price auction where bidders compete in demand schedules; the model allows for common and private values in the absence of exogenous noise. It is shown how private information yields more market power than the levels seen with full information. Results obtained here are broadly consistent with evidence from asset auctions, may help explain the response of centra...

The calculations made by Euler for the orbital parameters Comet of 1742 are revisited. These were published in Latin E58—Determinatio orbitae cometae qui mense Martio huius anni potissimum fuit observatus (Determination orbit comet which was clearly observed month March 1742). present work begins giving some background on comets before addressing main topic itself, consists calculation assumed ...

I study optimal monetary policy in an expectational Phillips Curve environment in which private agents optimally choose their amount of information pertinent to predicting policy. ARCH shocks produce interesting information acquisition (IA) dynamics. Under discretion, IA dynamics cause time-varying effectiveness of policy because of the expectational Phillips Curve; policy may be rendered compl...

The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their credit scoring models are performing well. In this paper we take up the challenge to propose and imple...

We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to study policy design, approximating the uncertainty by different discrete modes in a Markov chain, and by taking mode-dependent linear-quadratic approximations of the underlying model. This allows us to apply a powerful meth...

New Neoclassical Synthesis models equate the instrument of monetary policy to the implied CCAPM rate arising from a standard model with power utility. This paper identifies monetary policy shocks using a multi country dataset and examines the movement of money market and implied CCAPM rates. We find that an increase in the nominal interest rate leads to a fall in the implied CCAPM rate. Incorpo...