The main objective of this study is to present a two-step approach to generate estimates of economic growth based on agents’ expectations from tendency surveys. First, we design a genetic programming experiment to derive mathematical functional forms that approximate the target variable by combining survey data on expectations about different economic variables. We use evolutionary algorithms t...

The theory of inferential expectations states that “economic agents hold beliefs that are subject to falsification by new information, in much the same way that they are in conventional statistical hypothesis testing.” We outline the role expectations play in current monetary economic theory by ∗Corresponding author. Contact details: Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian Natio...

e rational expectations hypothesis is one of the cornerstones of current economic theorising. is review discusses a number of experiments that focus on expectation formation by human subjects and analyses the implications for the rational expectations hypothesis. e experiments show that most agents are weakly rational and that their expectations coordinate quickly; but the strong rational ex...

Studies of the linkages between real estate prices and general economic conditions have an extensive history, beginning with tabulations suggesting the ways in which long swings in construction and price development were synchronized with long swings in aggregate economic activity (Gottlieb, 1976). Recent studies have explored the implications of alternative representations of investor expectat...

Actions taken by economic decision makers are typically predicated upon hypotheses or predictions about future states of a world that is itself in part the consequence of these hypotheses or predictions. When we attempt to model how such predictions might be generated we become stymied: the predictions some economic agents might form depend on the predictions they believe others might form; and...

In recent literature on monetary policy and learning, it has been suggested that private sector’s expectations should play a role in the policy rule implemented by the central bank, as they could improve the ability of the policymaker to stabilize the economy. Private sector’s expectations, in these studies, are often taken to be homogeneous and rational, at least in the limit of a learning pro...