The conventional wisdom is that mortality falls when the economy temporarily improves and increases when it weakens. This strong apriori belief has engendered substantial attention to be paid to analyses indicating a countercyclical variation in deaths and excessive scepticism to countervailing evidence. However, this view is beginning to change as recent research, often using more sophisticate...

Using a sample of commodity spot price indexes over the period 1947-2010, we examine predictability of commodity returns at the monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. We establish out-of-sample predictability by means of variables such as bond spreads, growth in money supply and industrial production. Predictability is strongest for raw industrials and metals indexes and weakest for foods and...

BACKGROUND In the past two decades, health inequality has persisted or increased in states with comprehensive welfare. METHODS We conducted a national registry-based repeated cohort study with a 3-year follow-up between 1990 and 2007 in Sweden. Information on all-cause mortality in all working-age Swedish men and women aged between 30 and 64 years was collected. Data were subjected to tempora...

PURPOSE To examine whether economic conditions at the time of leaving school or college are associated with physical functioning in later life among cohorts in 11 European countries. METHODS Data came from 10,338 participants in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) aged 50-74 who left school or college between 1956 and 1986. Data on functional limitations, as well as ...

BACKGROUND To curb the tobacco epidemic, successful implementation of tobacco control measures should take into account how specific demographic groups react to particular policies. In 2005-2010, Ukraine experienced a sharp decline in smoking prevalence. In 2008-2010, several excise tax hikes combined with the economic recession resulted in a sharp reduction of tobacco product affordability, bu...

Since 2008, Western countries are going through a deep economic crisis whose health impacts seem to be fundamentally counter-cyclical: when economic conditions worsen, so does health, and mortality tends to rise. While a growing number of studies have presented evidence on the effect of crises on the average population health, a largely neglected aspect of research is the impact of crises and t...

During the last two decades, incidence rates of occupational accidents have been decreasing in Brazil. Mortality has also decreased, but not as sharply as incidence. Changes in reporting of occupational accidents have been the main argument used to explain such trends. This time-series study covering occupational accidents from 1970 to 1995 clearly shows the link between occupational accidents ...

Understanding the dynamic nature of sex work is important for explaining the course of HIV epidemics. While health and development interventions targeting sex workers may alter the dynamics of the sex trade in particular localities, little has been done to explore how large-scale social and structural changes, such as economic recessions-outside of the bounds of organizational intervention-may ...

Since 1990, the California tribal casino industry has grown from a very small and insignificant industry to one with annual gross gaming revenues of about $7.5 billion per annum by 2009. Over this same period, Nevada's gaming revenues grew from approximately $5.0 billion in 1990 to $10.4 billion in 2009, having declined from a peak of $12.8 billion in 2007. Much of the recent decline in Nevada ...

The global demand for renewable energy in recent decades has continued to increase, despite adverse economic conditions such as world economic recessions, trade disputes, and falls in gas and oil prices. During this period, the United States and Europe have led the development of renewable energy technologies, but now emerging countries such as China, Brazil, India, and the Republic of Korea ar...