When any earthquake occurs, the possibility that it might be a foreshock increases the probability that a larger earthquake will occur nearby within the next few days. Clearly, the probability of a very large earthquake ought to be higher if the candidate foreshock were on or near a fault capable of producing that very large mainshock, especially if the fault is towards the end of its seismic c...

Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fa...

Right-lateral surface displacement reaching 11⁄2 centimeters occurred over a ten-kilometer section of the Imperial fault in association with a magnitude 3.6 earthquake on March 4, 1966, the smallest known earthquake yet associated with surface displacement. The displacement is documented by field observations of en-echelon cracking in pavement and the offset of the white center line of Highway ...

[1] The 23 October 2002 Nenana Mountain Earthquake (Mw 6.7) occurred on the Denali Fault (Alaska), to the west of the Mw 7.9 Denali Earthquake that ruptured the same fault 11 days later. We used 6 interferograms, constructed using radar images from the Canadian Radarsat-1 and European ERS-2 satellites, to determine the coseismic surface deformation and a source model. Data were acquired on asce...

The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground motion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure, finite-fault ruptur...

Current studies of fault interaction lack sufficiently long earthquake records and measurements of fault slip rates over multiple seismic cycles to fully investigate the effects of interseismic loading and coseismic stress changes on the surrounding fault network. We model elastic interactions between 97 faults from 30 earthquakes since 1349 A.D. in central Italy to investigate the relative imp...

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we ...

We present a new strategy to estimate the geometry of a rupture on a finite fault in real time for earthquake early warning. We extend the work of Cua and Heaton who developed the virtual seismologist (VS) method (Cua, 2005), which is a Bayesian approach to seismic early warning using envelope attenuation relationships. This article extends the VS method to large earthquakes where fault finiten...

Monitoring of earthquake faults and volcanoes contributes to our understanding of their dynamic mechanisms and to our ability to predict future earthquakes and volcanic activity. We report here on spatial and temporal variations of seismic velocity around the seismogenic fault of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0] based on ambient seismic noise. Seismic velocity near the r...

Offset geomorphic features along the Superstition Hills fault show evidence for at least one slip event prior to the 1987 surface rupture, and possibly as many as four to five earlier prehistoric earthquakes. We documented several geomorphic features that appeared offset by multiple events by making detailed topographic maps. Offset features were abundant along reaches of the fault with high to...