The purpose of this research is predicting the stock prices using the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Box-Jenkins method. In this way, the information of 165 corporations is collected from 2001 to 2016. Then, this research considers price to earnings per share and earnings per share as main variables. The relevant regression equation was created using two variables of earnings per sha...

Relying on the well-established theoretical result that uncertainty has a common and an idiosyncratic component, we propose a new measure of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast errors estimated by a GARCH model. The new measure is based on both common and private information available to analysts at the time they make their for...

Recent studies find that stocks with higher dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts have lower future returns. The phenomenon is popularly interpreted as evidence that stock prices reflect optimism in the presence of differences of opinions and short-sales constraints. This paper shows that there is also a negative relationship between forecast dispersion and a firm’s unexpected future earni...

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to for...

Quarterly earnings guidance — managers’ public forecasts of forthcoming earnings — is widespread yet highly controversial. A recent position paper by the CFA Institute and the Business Roundtable emphatically calls on managers to ‘‘end the practice of providing quarterly earnings guidance’’ (CFA Institute 2006, 2). Similarly, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (2007) publicly implored managers to sto...

Using the unique data of analysts' site visits to Chinese listed companies, we examine whether and how analysts' site visits help improve their forecast performance. We find that the forecast accuracy of analysts improves after they visit the target firms and this improvement still holds after controlling for the concurrent change in the forecast accuracy of analysts who do not conduct site vis...