• Up to 3 quarters ahead, our mean forecast errors for GDPP growth have been relatively small. However, 4 to 8 quarters ahead we have tended to over-predict quarterly GDPP growth by at least 0.25 per cent (on average). • In terms of accuracy and bias our GDPP growth forecasting performance has been similar to that of the NZIER. • We do not find a significant difference between the accuracy of t...

in this paper semi-markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. semi-markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. in semi-markov models each zone can be considered as a state...

The California generation fleet manages the existing variability and uncertainty in the demand for electric power (load). When wind power is added, the dispatchable generators manage the variability and uncertainty of the net load (load minus wind power). The variability and uncertainty of the load and the net load are compared when 8790MW of wind power are added to the California power system,...

The dominant vertical structures for analysis and forecast errors are estimated in midlatitudes using a small ensemble of operational analyses. Errors for fixed locations in the central North Pacific and eastern North America are selected for comparing errors in regions with relatively low and high observation density, respectively. Results for these fixed locations are compared with results fo...

The properties of the multiple-scale instabilities present in a non-hydrostatic forecast model are investigated. The model simulates intense convection episodes occurring in northern Italy. A breeding technique is used to construct ensembles of perturbations of the model trajectories aimed at representing the instabilities that are responsible for error growth on various timescales and space sc...

Ammonium sulfate chromatography has been employed to separate glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenases (GPD) of Sinapis alba cotyledons of various developmental stages. Cotyledons of dark-grown seedlings possess one major NAD-specific enzyme designated NAD-GPD I. Irradiation with continuous far red light leads to a strong increase in NADP-GPD activity and to the formation of a second NAD activ...

We develop an unobserved-components approach to study surveys of forecasts containing multiple forecast horizons. Under the assumption that forecasters optimally update their beliefs about past, current, and future state variables as new information arrives, we use our model to extract information on the degree of predictability of the state variable and the importance of measurement errors in ...

– The growth of the Internet, wireless mobility, and economic variability all contribute to the difficulty of forecasting the demand for which an optical transport network should be planned. It is therefore of interest to know how various architectural options inherently withstand changes in demand pattern relative to a forecast. In this study, we focus on the span restoration (SR) and shared b...

This paper describes a theoretical study of forecast errors. First, we formally define forecast errors with different rationales, derive several relationships among them, and prove a heuristic formula proposed by Mark Sower.1 Then we study the effects of a systematic bias on the forecast errors. Finally, we extend our study to the situations where correlations across product demands and time ef...