Floods, one of the most significant natural hazards, often result in loss of life and property. Accurate hourly streamflow forecasting is always a key issue in hydrology for flood hazard mitigation. To improve the performance of hourly streamflow forecasting, a methodology concerning the development of neural network (NN) based models with an enforced learning strategy is proposed in this paper...

In this paper we implement trading strategies for asset price forecasting models using parameterised decision rules. We develop a synthetic trading environment to investigate the relative effects, in terms of profitability, of modifying the forecasting model and the decision rule. We show that implementation of the trading rule can be as important to trading performance as the predictive abilit...

We propose novel smart forecasting models for Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) that combine sky image processing with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) optimization schemes. The forecasting models, which were developed for over 6 months of intra-minute imaging and irradiance measurements, are used to predict 1 min average DNI for specific time horizons of 5 and 10 min. We discuss optimal models for...

Performance of inventory management depends on the accuracy of demand forecasting. There are many techniques used for forecasting demand in retail sale. Advances in data mining application systems have given rise to the use of business intelligence in various domains of retailing. The current research captures the knowledge of classification of the customers using the purchase-based data of cus...

Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting...

Through a series of studies, involving over 400 companies over 20 years, the University of Tennessee Sales Forecasting Research Team has developed a vision of world-class forecasting. This presentation will articulate that vision, and participants will leave with a framework for benchmarking their own forecasting processes. Specifically, attendees will learn: • What forecasting excellence consi...

Forecasting models have wide applications in decision making. In the real world, rapid changes normally take place in different areas, specifically in financial markets. Collecting the required data is a main problem for forecasters in such unstable environments. Forecasting methods such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and also Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) need ...

Forecasting models have wide applications in decision making. In the real world, rapid changes normally take place in different areas, specifically in financial markets. Collecting the required data is a main problem for forecasters in such unstable environments. Forecasting methods such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and also Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) need ...

We propose a simple empirical scaling law that describes load forecasting accuracy at different levels of aggregation. The model is justified based on a simple decomposition of individual consumption patterns. We show that for different forecasting methods, aggregating more customers improves the relative forecasting performance up to specific point. Beyond this point, no more improvement in re...

Application of support vector regression (SVR) with chaotic sequence and evolutionary algorithms not only could improve forecasting accuracy performance, but also could effectively avoid converging prematurely (i.e., trapping into a local optimum). However, the tendency of electric load sometimes reveals cyclic changes (such as hourly peak in a working day, weekly peak in a business week, and m...