BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Determining the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) is essential for evaluating novel therapies. For acute ischemic stroke, expert surveys have yielded MCIDs that are substantially higher than the MCIDs observed in actual expert behavior in guideline writing and clinical practice, potentially because of anchoring bias. METHODS We administered a structured, in...

Experts are often used to provide uncertainty distributions in risk analyses. They play an importantrole when insufficient data exist for quantification, or when the available data or models are conflicting. Multiplesteps are required in constructing a successful expert judgment process. These steps include selecting andframing the issues, identifying the experts, deciding upon an o...

In many situations characterized by sparse data, occupational hygienists have used subjective judgments that are claimed to be derived from their experience and knowledge. While this practice is widespread, there has been no systematic study of 'expert judgment' or the 'art' of occupational hygiene. Indeed, there is a need to address the question of whether there is such a thing as 'expert opin...

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are effective platforms for science research and 9 monitoring, and for military and commercial data-gathering purposes. However, there is an inevitable risk of 10 loss during any mission. Quantifying the risk of loss is complex, due to the combination of vehicle reliability 11 and environmental factors, and cannot be determined through analytical means alon...

— What were the structural determinants of the recent Arab Awakening protests that engulfed the Arab world? We examine the economic and political grievances along with political opportunities. Time-series analysis of nonviolent and violent protests in 18 Arab-majority countries shows that “bread,” “justice,” and political opportunities mattered. State terror and political openness had the stron...