Macroeconomics was born as a distinct field in the 1940s, as a part of the intellectual response to the Great Depression. The term then referred to the body of knowledge and expertise that we hoped would prevent the recurrence of that economic disaster. My thesis in this lecture is that macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded: Its central problem of depression-prevention has been so...

Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stocha...

We show that decomposing macroeconomic risks across horizon is key to uncover a tight link between risk premia and the real economy. Exposure in four-year returns to innovations in macroeconomic growth and volatility with a matching half-life of over four years is priced in a wide variety of test assets. Shorter-term risks are not priced. Importantly, we show that long-term growth and volatilit...

Using macroeconomic factors to forecast tax revenue is an important means of tax revenue forecasting, and it is also a challenging issue in China to which State Administration of Taxation pays close attention. As a prerequisite, the relationships among tax revenue and certain macroeconomic factors should be examined. In this paper, interactions among tax revenue, GDP, price level, and external ...

Macroeconomic shocks and labour-market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these institutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of institutions may be appropriate in one epoch and not in another. We derive a dynamic model of labour deman...

AG represents only one, it’s true that it is very fashionable today, of the new instruments which began to be used lately in the macroeconomic modelling. Here, it may also be mentioned the classification systems, the genetic programming, the models based on agents, the evolutionist games etc. The characteristics of all these methods consist in the effort to detect the internal dynamic processes...

Most of the current literature on macroeconomic policies focus on cyclical phenomena such as politically induced business cycles, and how short-sighted policies can be overcome through proper institutional design. This paper instead focuses on the lasting effects of macroeconomic policies on such “real” economic variables as unemployment and distribution, and we argue that traditional distribut...

We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the threshold required return that triggers investment is lower for an informed investor than for an uninform...

The credit market continues to be the main mechanism for financing investments in developing countries, particularly in Morocco. In this sense, monetary and macro-prudential policies require the inclusion of this market in macroeconomic analysis. In this article, we use the model proposed by Bernanke et al. (1999) "BGG" in the case of Morocco to answer two main questions: is there a mechanism f...