This paper relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short-horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in longer-horizon contracts can be well described using Markov switching models, with predictability associated with ...

We study the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy to explain why some countries exhibit pro-cyclical fiscal policy stances–being expansionary in good times and contractionary in bad times. We develop a model that links the polarization of preferences over fiscal spending to the pro-cyclicality bias. We then present evidence that social polarization as measured by income inequality and educational...

Stagnation as the new norm and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations. We impose inflation and consumption lower bounds, which can be relevant when agents are pessimistic. The inflation target is locally stable under learning. Pessimistic initial expectations may sink the economy into steady-state stagnation with deflation. The deflat...

Economic theory points out that immigration of even low-skilled immigrants may improve public finances in Western welfare states, and it is some times suggested that fiscal sustainability problems in Western countries caused by ageing populations could be solved by increasing immigration. We examine consequences of various immigration scenarios using the large-scale computable general equilibri...

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature, which is in sharp contrast to the implausibly lo...

This paper extends the two-class monetary growth model by incorporating fiscal activity along the lines of Pasinetti (Cambridge J. Econ. 13, 25–36). Despite this extension, the Cambridge equation is found to be one of long-run equilibria. It is shown that Fiscal policy decreases the accumulation of capital, through an increase in the proportional tax on profits. An inflationary monetary policy ...

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Dynamics under learning can have large ...

This paper uses a two-region, two-period overlapping generations model with international labor mobility to examine the efficacy of using tax policy to internalize the externalities created by international labor migration. While a brain drain tax has a substantial limiting effect on labor migration and a small negative effect on per worker growth, it is found to be a viable solution to the neg...

The role of government expenditure is analyzed in the context of growing economy with endogenous labor supply and with investment adjustment costs. Assuming the dynasty model of representative consumer’s utility maximization i.e., the present value of over time felicity function maximization under the law of motion capital where felicity function depends consumption, leisure and government expe...

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of ‘news’ shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by ‘non-fundamentalness’ and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explainin...