In finite populations subject to selection, genetic drift generates negative linkage disequilibrium, on average, even if selection acts independently (i.e., multiplicatively) upon all loci. Negative disequilibrium reduces the variance in fitness and hence, by Fisher's (1930) fundamental theorem, slows the rate of increase in mean fitness. Modifiers that increase recombination eliminate the nega...

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over estimation windows leads to a lower b...

Random genetic drift shifts clines in space, alters their width, and distorts their shape. Such random fluctuations complicate inferences from cline width and position. Notably, the effect of genetic drift on the expected shape of the cline is opposite to the naive (but quite common) misinterpretation of classic results on the expected cline. While random drift on average broadens the overall c...

In this paper sequential monitoring schemes to detect nonparametric drifts are studied for the random walk case. The procedure is based on a kernel smoother. As a by-product we obtain the asymptotics of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and its associated sequential partial sum process under non-standard sampling. The asymptotic behavior differs substantially from the stationary situation, if there...

Biologists and philosophers have been extremely pessimistic about the possibility of demonstrating random drift in nature, particularly when it comes to distinguishing random drift from natural selection. However, examination of a historical case--Maxime Lamotte's study of natural populations of the land snail, Cepaea nemoralis in the 1950s--shows that while some pessimism is warranted, it has ...

An analytic expression of conditional expectation of transient gamete frequency, given that one of the two loci remains polymorphic, is obtained in terms of the diffusion process by calculating the moments of the distribution. Using this expression, a model where linkage disequilibrium is introduced by a single mutation is considered. The conditional expectation of the gamete frequency given th...

We state some unsolved problems and describe relevant examples concerning random walks on trees. Most of the problems involve the behavior of random walks with drift: e.g., is the speed on Galton-Watson trees monotonic in the drift parameter? These random walks have been used in Monte-Carlo algorithms for sampling from the vertices of a tree; in general, their behavior reflects the size and reg...