This paper discusses the existence of spurious long memory in common nonlinear time series models, namely Markov switching and threshold models. We describe the asymptotic behavior of the process in terms of autocovariance and autocorrelation function and support the theoretical evidences by providing Monte Carlo simulation. The existence of long memory in these nonlinear processes is induced b...

In this paper, we examine the structural stability of predictive regression models of quarterly real stock returns over the postwar era. We consider predictive regressions models of S&P 500 and CRSP equal-weighted real stock returns based on eight financial variables that display predictive ability in the extant literature. We test for structural stability using the popular Andrews (1993) SupF ...

using the quarterly data of 1990:1 to 2008:1 and in a general equilibrium approach, we investigate the long run equilibrium path of the equilibrium interest rate as well as the potential output. we implement a structural reduced form of a general equilibrium model consistent with iran’s economy and estimate the unobservable variables by employing the kalman filtering technique. a exponential ut...

in this paper, economic convergence in selected oic (36 countries) is studied. the convergence hypothesis is tested through three approaches: beta convergence, sigma convergence, and time series model. ols is used for estimating the cross section model and cross variance is used to test the distributive model. for analyzing time series model, we used augmented dicky fuller test. beta convergenc...

We conduct both an approximate Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and an exact Bayesian analysis to incorporate break date uncertainty of the mean growth rate into the trend-cycle decomposition of U.S. real GDP. Our results suggest a structural break in mean growth rate of U.S. real GDP in 1970s. Comparing to the models assuming fixed break date, we find higher uncertainty in the posterior density ...

In this paper, an empirically stable money demand model for M3 in the euro area is constructed. Starting with a multivariate system, three cointegrating relationships with economic content are found: (i) the spread between the longand the short-term nominal interest rates, (ii) the long-term real interest rate, and (iii) a long-run demand for broad money M3. There is evidence that the determina...

interest free banking law at 1363 was implemented in the banking system in iran. one of the main goals of this law was eliminating usury from monetary system, and utilization from non-usury credit impact on economic growth through preferring money contribution in the capital. this paper uses data from years 1363 to 1386 and implementing herfindahl-hirschman index, evaluated and ranked concentra...