This paper examines types of cointegration for bivariate seasonal time series, namely seasonal cointegration, periodic cointegration and nonperiodic cointegration. The admissable form(s) for any cointegration is shown to depend crucially on the univariate unit root properties of the series. When both processes are (conventionally) integrated, only nonperiodic cointegration is possible. Periodic...

In this paper we show that the monthly structure of the US money stock can be specified in terms of a long-memory process, with roots at both the zero and the seasonal monthly frequencies. We use a procedure that enables us to test simultaneously for the roots at all these frequencies. The results show that the root at the long-run or zero frequency plays a much more important role than the sea...

agriculture as one of the major economic sectors of iran, has an important role in gross domestic production by providing about 14% of gdp. this study attempts to forecast the value of the agriculture gdp using periodic autoregressive model (par), as the new seasonal time series techniques. to address this aim, the quarterly data were collected from march 1988 to july 1989. the collected data w...

considering importance and the role of forecasting water consumption in water resources management and implementing appropriate short- and long-run policies in order to optimize water demand, therefore, this study aims to provide a model for predicting the water consumption via box and jenkins method. to this end, monthly data for the domestic and agricultural water consumptions of tehran provi...

This chapter deals with seasonal time series in economics and it reviews models that can be used to forecast out-of-sample data. Some of the key properties of seasonal time series are reviewed, and various empirical examples are given for illustration. The potential limitations to seasonal adjustment are reviewed. The chapter further addresses a few basic models like the deterministic seasonali...

This paper proposes a new panel unit root test based on Simes’ [Biometrika 1986, “An Improved Bonferroni Procedure for Multiple Tests of Significance”] classical intersection test. The test is robust to general patterns of cross-sectional dependence and yet straightforward to implement, only requiring p-values of time series unit root tests of the series in the panel, and no resampling. Monte C...

This paper presents a response surface analysis for the distributions of the popular tests for seasonal unit roots in quarterly observed time series variables developed by Hylleberg et al. (1990). Approximate asymptotic distributions are obtained, and response surface coefficients for 1%-, 5%and 10%-level critical values are reported, permitting simple computation of accurate critical values fo...

In this paper the asymptotic properties of ARMA processes with complex-conjugate unit roots in the AR lag polynomial are studied. These processes behave quite di¤erently from regular unit root processes (with a single root equal to 1). In particular, the asymptotic properties of a standardized version of the periodogram for such processes are analyzed, and a nonparametric test of the complex un...