Abstract Skillfully predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and closely related northern annular mode (NAM), on ‘subseasonal’ (weeks to less than a season) timescales is high priority for operational forecasting centers, because of NAO’s association with high-impact weather events, particularly during winter. Unfortunately, relatively fast, weather-related processes dominating total NA...

[1] Based on the nonlinear techniques for estimation of coupling between oscillatory systems, we investigate the dynamics of climatic modes characterizing global and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) processes. In particular, indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for 1950–2004 are analyzed. The methods based on phase dynamics modeling and nonlinear ‘...

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961-2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations bet...

We review the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions over the Atlantic sector in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. The emphasis is on physical mechanisms, which are illustrated in simple models and analyzed in observations and numerical models. Some directions of research are proposed to better assess the relevance of Atlantic air-sea interactions to observed and simulated NAO variab...

We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO 3 ]) on the basis of a long control simulation with an Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO 3 ] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in...

The objective of the paper is to identify the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess; of storm frequency, intensity and tracking on the Atlantic margin of Europe. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been studied for the period 1940-1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic ...