This paper investigates the lag length selection problem of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) by using a convergent information criterion and tools based on the Box-Pierce methodology recently proposed in the literature. The performances of these approaches for selecting of the optimal lag length are compared via Monte Carlo experiments. The effects of misspecified deterministic trend or c...

Prediction of economic variables is a basic component not only for economic models, but also for many business decisions. But it is difficult to produce accurate predictions in times of economic crises, which cause nonlinear effects in the data. Such evidence appeared in the German automobile industry as a consequence of the financial crisis in 2008/09, which influenced exchange rates and a...

in this study, the relationship between inflation and economic growth of iran is conciliated with a perspective on uncertainty of inflation. we use a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (garch) model that make possible this advantage that conditional variance of error term changes along the time, also, vector error correction model (vecm) is stable. for surveying the co-in...

in this paper asymmetric price transmission mechanism and nonlinear adjustment between producer and retail prices of milk were examined in zanjan province of iran. for this purpose, a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (tvecm) and a sup-lm test developed by hansen and seo (2002) were employed for checking presence of a threshold effect. application of unit root tests indicated t...

Any research or policy analysis exercise in economics must be consistent with the timeseries properties of observed macroeconomic data. This paper discusses in detail the specification of a six-variable vector error-correction forecasting model. We test for cointegration among those variables: the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (M1), the federal funds rate, the yi...

abstract:this study examines the significant impact of exchange rate shock on prices of malaysian importsand exports. in methodology, the study adopts vector error correction (vecm) model using monthlydata of nominal exchange rates, money supply, prices of imports and prices of exports covering theperiod of m1:1999 to m12:2006. for further analysis, we adopt an innovation accounting bysimulatin...

The study of determining the factors affecting inflation or consumer price index has been conducted by many macroeconomic economists nationally as well as internationally. In this paper, we assess the external determinants of inflation dynamics in Iran. For this purpose, we use an OLS single equation model and a vector error correction model (VECM). Results of the analysis reveal that money sup...

according to amount of oil seeds import in iran are more than 80% of domestic needs, in this study, import comparative advantage in soybeans using rca and rsca index is calculated in 1961-2008 periods for iran and ten important importer countries. iran’s competition state is investigated. also long run relation between production and import comparative advantage index is estimated using johanse...

How to assess external shocks, whether they are inflationary shocks or interest rate without warning, is crucial construct smooth and predictable financial market. The purpose of this paper analyze the short-run long-run effects on an economy under chaotic conditions uncertainty using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). A comprehensive detailed derivation process presented for VECM reveals dy...