Both unconditional mixed-normal distributions and GARCH models with fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employed for modeling financial return data. We consider a mixed-normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure which allows for conditional variance in each of the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components. Special cases and relationships with previous...

This paper combines a comprehensive sample of intraday firm-level news arrivals with high-frequency price movements of individual stocks, thereby decomposing daily stock returns into news-driven and non-news driven components. Consistent with prior literature, we find that non-news driven return precedes a reversal. For news-driven return, however, we find strong evidence of return continuation...

Article history: Received 29 February 2012 Received in revised form 31 July 2013 Accepted 5 August 2013 Available online 20 August 2013 This paper examines the comovement between the Chinese and US stock markets over the period between January 4, 2000 and January 13, 2012. We show that there is no cointegration relationship between the two markets, even when allowing for structural change. Thei...

This paper proposes an approach to the intraday analysis of the dynamics of electricity prices. The growth optimal portfolio (GOP) is used as a reference unit in a continuous financial electricity price model. A diversified global portfolio in the form a market capitalisation weighted index approximates the GOP. The GOP, measured in units of electricity, is normalised and then modelled as a tim...

This paper investigates the significance of dynamic conditional beta in predicting the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns. The results indicate that the time-varying conditional beta is alive and well in the cross-section of daily stock returns. Portfolio-level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a positive and significant relation between dynamic condi...

This paper examines the dynamics of the linkages between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock indices. While the volatility linkage is analysed by a multivariate GARCH framework, the dependence of returns is examined by a copula approach. Eight different copula functions are applied in this study including two time varying ones which capture the time varying process of the linkage. The result shows sig...

This paper derives a two factor model for the term structure of interest rates that segments the yield curve in a natural way. The first factor involves modelling a non-negative short rate process that primarily determines the early part of the yield curve and is obtained as a truncated Gaussian short rate. The second factor mainly influences the later part of the yield curve via the market ind...

This paper describes a two-factor model for a diversified index that attempts to explain both the leverage effect and the implied volatility skews that are characteristic of index options. Our formulation is based on an analysis of the growth optimal portfolio and a corresponding random market activity time where the discounted growth optimal portfolio is expressed as a time transformed squared...

We develop a multi-asset trading model to examine the closed-end fund discount. The model shows that the discount can arise if the quality of private information in the underlying assets is sufficiently better than in the fund. The model also indicates that a discount (premium) can arise if the excessive volatility of the fund dominates (is dominated by) the fund’s diversification benefit. More...

We show that firm-level short interest predicts negative returns for individual stocks during economic expansions, while aggregate short interest predicts negative market returns during recessions. Viewing short sellers as informed traders, these findings are consistent with Kacperczyk, Van Nieuwerburgh, and Veldkamp’s (2016) model in which rational yet cognitively constrained traders optimally...