En route airspace congestion, often due to convective weather, causes system-wide delays and disruption in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Present-day methods for managing congestion are mostly manual, based on uncertain forecasts of weather and traffic demand, and often involve rerouting or delaying entire flows of aircraft. A sequential decision-making approach is proposed, in which ...

B ackground. Each spring during the climatological peak of the severe weather season in the United States, the Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) conducts a multiagency collaborative forecasting experiment known as the HWT EFP Spring Experiment. Organized by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and Nat...

The results presented in this paper are part of a research project to investigate the possibilities to apply massively parallel architectures for numerical weather forecasting. Within numerical weather forecasting several numerical techniques are used to solve the model equations. This paper compares the performance of implementations on a MasPar system of two techniques, nite di erence and spe...

Pluvial flash floods are among the most dangerous weather-triggered disasters, usually affecting watersheds smaller than 100 km2, with a short time to peak discharge (from few minutes hours) after causative rainfall. Several warning systems in world try use this lag predict location, extent, intensity, and of flooding. They based on numerical hydrological models processing data collected by on-...

Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA-40; Uppala et al. 2005) have become heavily used products for geophysical science research. These reanalyses run a practical, consistent data assimilation and short-range forecast system over a ...

Experiments were conducted to quantify the impact of satellite data (Earth Observations from Space—EOS) on the determination of current and future atmospheric state. These experiments have examined two different time periods using two different operational forecast models. The results show that, in the southern hemisphere, the accuracy of a no-satellite data 24-hour (one day) forecast is of the...

Several techniques have been used to generate weather forecast texts. In this paper, case based reasoning (CBR) is proposed for weather forecast text generation because similar weather conditions occur over time and should have similar forecast texts. CBR-METEO, a system for generating weather forecast texts was developed using a generic framework (jCOLIBRI) which provides modules for the stand...

Several data assimilation and forecast experiments are undertaken to determine the impact of special observations taken during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) on forecasts of the 5 June 2009 Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell. The data used in these experiments are those from the Mobile Weather Radar, 2005 X‐band, Phased Array (MWR‐05XP), two ...

Weather forecasts are an important input to many electricity demand forecasting models. This study investigates the use of weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting for lead times from one to 10 days ahead. A weather ensemble prediction consists of 51 scenarios for a weather variable. We use these scenarios to produce 51 scenarios for the weather-related component of electr...

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) seasonal forecast in the temperature process so that conditional means and conditional variances of both the temperature and the CDD (Cooling Degree Day) may be redetermined in accordance with the seasonal forecasting probabilities. Under the Gaussian property of the underlying process, the prices of the CDD options...