Do voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? According to rational voting models, electors should parse out the state of the world economy when deciding whether to re-elect their national leader. I test this theory using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, comparing ...

We provide a general framework for the analysis of the dynamics of institutional change (e.g., democratization, extension of political rights, or repression of different groups), and how these dynamics interact with (anticipated and unanticipated) changes in the distribution of political power and in economic structure. We focus on Markov Voting Equilibria, which require that economic and polit...

The text of this book is composed in Baskerville, with display type set in Optima. Macroeconomic policy in a world economy : from econometric design to practical operation / John B. Taylor. p. cm.

A possible alternative to the Solow-Swan model is some variant of a model of endogenous growth either in the form of the AK model developed by Romer (1986), Lucas (1988) and Rebelo (1991) or in the subsequent group of models by Romer (1990), Grossman and Helpman (1991a, b), and Aghion and Howitt (1992) that focus more explicitly on the determinants of technological change. In this article we st...

The aim of the study is to quantify climate induced health risks for Germany. Based on high resolution climate scenarios for the period 2071 to 2100 we forecast the number of days with heat load and cold stress. The heat frequency and intensity rise overall but more in the south. Referring to empirical studies on heat induced health effects we estimate an average increase in the number of heat ...

1 Great changes are taking place in the world economy. The center of gravity is moving to Asia and the emerging world. This has been recognized in the landmark agreement on IMF reform reached at the last G20 Ministerial meeting. China has become the IMF's third shareholder, India has moved up by five ranks and Brazil is now on par with Canada (a G7 country). Symmetrically, the European represen...

Oil prices, associated with bouts of inflation and economic instability over the last 30 years, have been rising in recent months. We argue that the inflationary consequences of a rise in oil prices depend upon the policy response of the monetary authorities. They can ameliorate the short term impacts on output, but only at the cost of higher inflation. In the short term the size and distributi...

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