The Akaike Information Criterion can be a valuable tool of scientific inference. This statistic, or any other statistical method for that matter, cannot, however, be the whole of scientific methodology. In this paper some of the limitations of Akaikean statistical methods are discussed. It is argued that the full import of empirical evidence is realized only by adopting a richer ideal of empiri...

hydrological drought refers to a persistently low discharge and volume of water in streams and reservoirs, lasting months or years. hydrological drought is a natural phenomenon, but it may be exacerbated by human activities. hydrological droughts are usually related to meteorological droughts, and their recurrence interval varies accordingly. this study pursues to identify a stochastic model (o...

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We find ourselves agreeing with much of what Kruse says in his reply to “Why Likelihood?”, and we appreciate his clarification on other points. Boik, on the other hand, believes there is a satisfactory Bayesian solution to the problem of model selection. He also believes that the Akaike solution is flawed. We discuss these two points in sections 2 and 3. In addition, we disagree with Boik about...

A multivariate distribution can be represented in terms of its underlying margins by binding these margins together using a copula function (Sklar, 1959). Here, we propose a new class of survival FGM type modification truncated copulas which quantify dependency and incorporate directional dependence. In addition, we apply our proposed methods to the analysis of directional dependence relationsh...

Bayesians often reject the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) because it introduces ideas that do not fit into their philosophy of statistical inference. Here we show that a difference in the AIC scores that two models receive is evidence that they differ in their degrees of predictive accuracy, where evidence is understood in terms of the Law of Likelihood. Since the Law of Likelihood is a cen...

We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on the choices involved in setting up these measures, and we compare them in three simple examples, one theoretical and two applied. The contribution of this p...

In the standard stochastic frontier model with sample selection, the two components of the error term are assumed to be independent, and the joint distribution of the unobservable in the selection equation and the symmetric error term in the stochastic frontier equation is assumed to be bivariate normal. In this paper, we relax these assumptions by using two copula functions to model the depend...

One important aspect of the relationship between spoken and written Chinese is the ranked syllable-tocharacter mapping spectrum, which is the ranked list of syllables by the number of characters that map to the syllable. Previously, this spectrum is analyzed for more than 400 syllables without distinguishing the four intonations. In the current study, the spectrum with 1280 toned syllables is a...

Physical models and grey system models (GSMs) are commonly used to evaluate and predict physical behavior. A physical model avoids the incorrect trend series of a GSM, whereas a GSM avoids the assumptions and uncertainty of a physical model. A technique that combines the results of physical models and GSMs would make prediction more reasonable and reliable. This study proposes a fusion method f...