This paper examines the relationship between household balance sheets, consumer purchases, and expectations. We find few robust empirical relationships between balance sheet measures and spending, but we do find that unemployment expectations are robustly correlated with spending. We then construct a formal model of durables and nondurables consumption with an explicit role for unemployment and...

 County-level housing net worth shock: We cannot make the exact county-level housing net worth shock used in our analysis publicly available given restrictions in our agreements with Equifax and CoreLogic. However, we can make a CBSA-level data set available that replaces Equifax debt with county-level debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and replaces CoreLogic house price growth fr...

Active management has not always met with the success it enjoyed in 2013. The global financial crisis in 2008 resulted in severely shaken investor confidence which, over five years later, has yet to fully rebound. During the crisis, actively managed funds suffered poor performance as strategies that once outperformed no longer worked and failed to protect investors from declines. These events p...

The views expressed in this paper are ours alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reserve Bank of Australia. We are grateful to Warren Tease, Gordon de Brouwer and participants at seminars at the Reserve Bank of Australia and the University of Sydney for helpful comments and suggestions. i ABSTRACT The 1980s witnessed large increases in corporate debt and sustained asset price in...

In a world of high capital mobility, the threat of speculative attack becomes a central issue of macroeconomic policy. While “first-generation” and “second-generation” models of speculative attacks both have considerable relevance to particular financial crises of the 1990s, a “third-generation” model is needed to make sense of the number and nature of the emerging market crises of 1997–98. Mos...

The static trade-off and pecking order capital structure theories are analyzed and applied to nonprofit organizations. In addition, this paper also considers how nonprofits adjust their leverage over time. The analyses consider the unique role of donor-restricted endowments in the decision to borrow, as well as different types of borrowing by nonprofits. The results indicate that nonprofit capi...

The article focuses on the motives and trends in gold holdings by central banks recent decades. It examines correlation between nominal real price of selected macroeconomic variables financial assets over business cycles. In this context, it outlines investment opportunities for other investors. paper also highlights differences advanced economies (including those with reserve currencies) emerg...