We are concerned with an epidemic in a closed population under the assumption that the per capita number of contacts remains constant, when population size diminishes due to the fatal consequences of the disease. We focus on the nal size as a function of the basic reproduction ratio R0 (which now is independent of population size!) and the survival probability f. Mathematically the model is des...

Two closely related stochastic models of parasitic infection are investigated: a non-linear model, where density dependent constraints are included, and a linear model appropriate to the initial behaviour of an epidemic. Host-mortality is included in both models. These models are appropriate to transmission between homogeneously mixing hosts, where the amount of infection which is transferred f...

Since there exist extrinsic and intrinsic incubation periods of pathogens in the feedback interactions between the vectors and hosts, it is necessary to consider the incubation delays in vector-host disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, we propose vector-host disease models with two time delays, one describing the incubation period in the vector population and another representing the i...

This paper explains why the traditional approach of predicting evolutionary outcomes by maximizing the basic reproduction ratio of a disease is not always appropriate. Since pathogens tend to affect their host environment in radical ways, selection pressures usually depend on the types of pathogens and hosts that are established in an infected population. After outlining the theory of adaptive ...

Based on a simple model due to Dietz, it is shown that the size of a major epidemic of a vector-borne disease with basic reproduction ratio R0 > 1 is dominated by the size of a standard SIR (susceptible–infected–removed) epidemic with direct host-to-host transmission of disease and the same R0. Further bounds and numerical illustrations are provided, broadly spanning situations where the size o...

BACKGROUND In a new influenza pandemic, travel data such as arrival times of cases seeded by the originating country can be regarded as a combination of the epidemic size and the mobility networks of infections connecting the originating country with other regions. It can be a complete and timely source for estimating the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), a key indicator of disease transmissibi...