In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification method originated in the meteorological literature for the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of a suitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of the forecasts. We find that ...

ƒ In addition to accurate forecasts of the price of oil, policy-makers are interested in evaluating the risks associated with the baseline forecast to gauge the implications of alternative oil price paths for the economic outlook. A structural model of the global oil market can be used to develop risk scenarios for oil price forecasts, based on hypothetical assumptions about future demand and s...

Meteorological forecasts of incident solar radiation are valuable for solar resource owners and others. Most previously described forecast methods provide a single predicted value. However, a well-calibrated forecast probability distribution is more useful in that it could be used to make optimum decisions under any decision rule. We demonstrate methods of constructing and evaluating probabilis...

s Statistical seasonal climate forecasting in Australia: An historical overview Dr Roger Stone......................................................................................................................................................................................18 The scientific basis of seasonal climate prediction Dr Scott Power.......................................................