نتایج جستجو برای: garch m

تعداد نتایج: 542743  

1997
Enrico Capobianco

Some relationships between ARCH-type and Stochastic Volatility models are investigated. New model formulations are derived through a transformation of a GARCH-M process and the name Generalized Bilinear Stochastic Volatility is suggested. Markovian-type representations are presented and estimation algorithms are proposed.

1998
Franc Klaassen Frank de Jong Harry Huizinga Theo Nijman Geert Bekaert

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model generalizes existing regime-switching models that allow for ARCH terms only. The empirical applica...

2002
John M. Maheu

This paper investigates if component GARCH models introduced by Engle and Lee (1999) and Ding and Granger (1996) can capture the long-range dependence observed in measures of time-series volatility. Long-range dependence is assessed through the sample autocorrelations, two popular semiparametric estimators of the long-memory parameter, and the parametric fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) ...

2009
Bin Chen

Detecting and modelling structural changes in GARCH processes have attracted increasing attention in time series econometrics. In this paper, we propose a new approach to testing structural changes in GARCH models. The idea is to compare the log likelihoods of a time-varying parameter GARCH model and a constant parameter GARCH model, where the time-varying GARCH parameters are estimated by a lo...

2017
Franc Klaassen Harry Huizinga Frank de Jong Michael McAleer

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. Using data on three major U.S. dollar exchange rates we show that such forecasts are too high in volatile periods. We argue that this is due to the high persistence of shocks in GARCH forecasts. To obtain more flexibility regarding volatility persistence, this paper generalizes the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with...

2005
Meng-Feng Yen

Bollerslev’s (1986) standard GARCH(1,1) model has been successful in the literature of volatility modelling and forecasting in the past two decades. Many of its extensions are contributed to examine the stylized features often observed with financial asset data. One of the distinct success is Bollerslev and Ghysels’ (1996) periodic GARCH model, which takes into account periodic variation in the...

2011
Altaf Hossain Mohammed Nasser

In the recent years, the use of GARCH type (especially, ARMA-GARCH) models and computational-intelligence-based techniques—Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) have been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of ARMA-GARCH, recurrent SVM (RSVM) and recurrent RVM (RRVM) in volatility forecasting. Based on RSVM and RRVM, two G...

2000
Ken Johnston Elton Scott

This study investigates the extent of the contribution of the original GARCH model to our understanding of the stochastic process underlying exchange rate price changes, and examines if the movement of current research to GARCH type models exclusively is warranted. GARCH(1,1) parameters are calculated on a yearly basis and used to standardize the exchange rate price change data. Frequency distr...

ژورنال: :پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران 0
سعید راسخی استاد دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، گروه اقتصاد بازرگانی سیدپیمان اسدی دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد پولی دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر زهرا شیدایی دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد بین الملل دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر

ادبیات مرسوم رابطه بین بازدهی انتظاری و واریانس شرطی آن را مثبت ارزیابی می کنند، اما یافته های تجربی حاکی از وجود رابطه ثابت و مشخص بین این دو نیست. ادبیات اخیر با تجزیه ریسک، شواهد جدیدی را در این خصوص ارایه کرده است. در این راستا، در مطالعه حاضر، نقش ویژگی های مشخص قیمت دارایی های مالی از جمله نوسانات شرطی متغیر با زمان و جامپ در رابطه بین ریسک و بازده سهام در بازار سهام تهران بررسی شده است. ...

2008
Călin Vamoş Maria Crăciun

The log returns of financial time series are usually modeled by means of the stationary GARCH(1,1) stochastic process or its generalizations which can not properly describe the nonstationary deterministic components of the original series. We analyze the influence of deterministic trends on the GARCH(1,1) parameters using Monte Carlo simulations. The statistical ensembles contain numerically ge...

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