This paper studies the usefulness of the P-model in the analysis of the behaviour of prices in Iranian economy. The P-model is based on the Quantity of Theory of Money. This model believes that the price level tends to move towards the equilibrium price level. The model uses price gap to forecast inflation, if the equilibrium price is greater than the current price, there is a tendency for the ...

We propose and estimate fundamental models for natural gas prices. We compare how well these models, as well as univariate statistical time series models of NG prices and the NYMEX futures price for natural gas, forecast spot gas prices. We find that a univariate time series model that incorporates fundamental variables related to production, storage, weather, and aggregate output performs best...

This paper discusses how price stability can be de…ned and how price stability can be maintained in practice. Some lessons for the Eurosystem are also considered. With regard to de…ning price stability, the choice between price-level stability and low (including zero) in‡ation and the decisions about the price index, the quantitative target and the role of output stabilization are examined. Wit...

This paper applies the Hodrck-Prescott (HP) filter to forecast short-term residential real estate prices under cyclical movements. We separate the trend component from the cyclical component. We show that each regional residential market reacts not only to previous price movements, but also that these regional markets react to previous shocks under Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARI...

It is very important to forecast electricity price in a deregulated electricity market for choosing the bidding strategy, and it is the most important signal for other players. It engulfs information for both customers and producers in order to maximize their profit. Thus, choosing the best method of price forecasting is a crucial task to have the most accurate forecast. In this paper the price...

The current gold market shows a high degree of nonlinearity and uncertainty. In order to predict the gold price, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was introduced into Support vector machine (SVM). Firstly, we used the EMD method to decompose the original gold price series into a finite number of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), and then grouped the IMFs according to different frequ...

This study analyzes the accuracy of forecasted target prices which are disclosed by leading investment banks within their analysts’ reports on German stocks for the period from 2002 to 2004. We compute a measure for target price forecast accuracy that evaluates the ability of analysts to exactly forecast the ex-ante (unknown) 12-months stock price. Overall, the target price forecasting accuracy...

This work aims to forecast gold prices for future dates using FBprophet and Linear Regression. For predicting the price Regression with a sample size of 140, time series analysis was suggested. The Dickey-Fuller test extracts seasonality (non-stationary) data converts it static data. accuracy FBProphet is 97.2 percent, compared 85.6 percent linear regression. Compared regression, tends do subst...