Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In fact, they are characteristically misguided in at least two respects: (i) assuming that there is a true model; (ii) evaluating the efficacy of the estimation as if the post...

Abstract The papers in this symposium use Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate the consequences of estimating time series models with variables that are different orders integration. In summary, I do following: very briefly outline what we learn from papers; identify an apparent contradiction might increase, rather than decrease, confusion around concept a balanced model; suggest resolution; ...

the main purpose of this article is, showing similar fluctuation of temperature series and their consistency with what happened in the global level. in addition, it determines new estimates of regional seasonal and annual temperature trends over iran, after the detection of artificial and natural non homogenous points of 33 synoptic stations for the period of 1960 2010. the 22 stations with sho...

The maximum entropy principle may be applied to the design of probabilistic retrieval systems. When there are inconsistent expert judgments, the resulting optimization problem cannot be solved. The inconsistency of the expert judgments can be revealed by solving a linear programming formulation. In the case of inconsistent judgment, four plausible schemes are proposed in order to find revised j...

It is needed for evidence-based medicine to support a medical expert in discovering clinically useful knowledge with data mining techniques. However, the real data on medical test results are severely intractable since they are sequential, large-scale, and ill-defined with many attributes and missing values. This paper discusses how pre-processing should be going and how a rule discovery suppor...

Since there are major gaps in scientific knowledge about the greenhouse effect, policy makers are forced to rely on scientists’ judgments about the rate of climate change and its effects. It now appears that significant policy decisions will have to be made despite continuing uncertainty and disagreement among scientists. The best that policy makers can do is look for guidance in the best avail...