Skillful medium-range weather forecasts are critical for water resources planning and management. This study aims to improve 15-day-ahead accumulated precipitation forecasts by combining biweekly weather and disaggregated climate forecasts. A combination scheme is developed to combine reforecasts from a numerical weather model and disaggregated climate forecasts from ECHAM4.5 for developing 15-...

Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to ...

In this study, an investigation of long-term forecasts relating to the development of the transport sector in Poland is performed, including the ones by 2030 and 2050. Selected transport development forecasts from the perspective of the membership of Poland in the European Union are presented and most of all, from the perspective of national studies. The basement for the review was the prognosi...

As a main technical tool, the air quality numerical model is widely used in forecasts of atmospheric pollutants, and its development great significance to environment human health. In this study, hybrid XGBoost-SMOTE has been developed applied for optimization forecasted PM 2.5 O 3 concentrations from Chinese operational forecasting - CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment (CUACE), which...

The environmental impact of aviation in terms noise and pollutant emissions has gained public attention the last few years. In addition, foreseen financial benefits an increased energy efficiency have motivated transport industry to invest propulsion alternatives. This work is collocated within Clean Sky 2 project GENESIS, focused on sustainability 50-passenger hybrid-electric aircraft from a l...

Abstract Many present-day statistical schemes for postprocessing weather forecasts, in particular precipitation rely on calibration using prescribed models to relate forecast statistics distributional parameters. The efficacy of such is often constrained not only by predictor-predictand relation, but also arbitrary choices temporal window and lead time range training. To address this limitation...

Recent research has begun to question the importance of forecasts to sell-side analysts. Prior research established the co-existence of longer horizon optimism and short-term pessimism in sell-side forecasts. These factors motivate us to explore a new phenomenon – crowdsourcing, as an alternative source of forecasts. We obtain revenue and earnings forecasts from estimize, an entity which crowds...