In this paper, we consider the coherent theory of (epistemic) uncertainty of Walley, in which beliefs are represented through sets of probability distributions, and we focus on the problem of modeling prior ignorance about a categorical random variable. In this setting, it is a known result that a state of prior ignorance is not compatible with learning. To overcome this problem, another state ...

Engineers and scientists are increasingly required to design, test, and validate new complex systems in simulation environments and/or with limited experimental results due to international Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, August 6-7, 2002 © Ayyub 2002 2 and/or budgetary restrictions. Dealing with complex systems requires assessing knowledge and inf...

Pluralistic ignorance, a well-documented socio-psychological conformity phenomenon, involves discrepancies between private attitude and public opinion in certain social contexts. However, continuous opinion dynamics models based on a bounded confidence assumption fail to accurately model pluralistic ignorance because they do not address scenarios in which non-conformists do not need to worry ab...

I develop a theory of group interaction in which individuals who act sequentially are concerned about signaling what they believe is the majority group preference. Equilibrium dynamics may result in a perverse situation where most individuals reluctantly act in a way they mistakenly believe is cooperative, a situation known as ‘pluralistic ignorance’. Strong beliefs over others’ views increases...