Fisher is the single most important figure in 20th century statistics. This talk examines his influence on modern statistical thinking, trying to predict how Fisherian we can expect the 21st century to be. Fisher’s philosophy is characterized as a series of shrewd compromises between the Bayesian and frequentist viewpoints, augmented by some unique characteristics that are particularly useful i...

The conjunctive causal power PC theory (Novick & Cheng, 2004) proposes that when people have to make a judgement about whether or not two causal candidates acting together produce an effect, they take into account several hypotheses. These hypotheses state that the effect will occur due to the: a) influence of a candidate A; b) influence of a candidate B; c) conjunctive influence of both A and ...

In this paper, we are interested in the decision analysis focusing on the Benefit-Cost-Deficit (BCD) model. The BCD model is proposed recently in order to analyse the intentional deviated users behaviour (prescribed behaviour crossing). This later is considered as a decision problem under risk where the consequences of users’ decisions can be evaluated following three attributes: the Benefit, t...

Many studies have proposed to apply artificial intelligence techniques to legal networks, whether it be for highlighting legal reasoning, resolving conflict or extracting information from legal databases. In this context, a new line of research has recently emerged which consists in considering legal decisions as elements of complex networks and conduct a structural analysis of the relations be...

In the optimization of decision diagrams, variable reordering approaches are often used to minimize the number of nodes. However, such approaches are less effective for analysis of multi-state systems given by monotone structure functions. Thus, in this paper, we propose algorithms to minimize the number of edges in an edge-valued multi-valued decision diagram (EVMDD) for fast analysis of multi...

In fault-tree analysis probabilities of failure of components are often assumed to be precise. However this assumption is seldom verified in practice. There is a large literature on the computation of the probability of the top (dreadful) event of the fault-tree, based on the representation of logical formulas in the form of a binary decision diagram (BDD). When probabilities of atomic proposit...

Abstract We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion network. The model complements the agentbased opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two sub-networks form a global network which can be either isolated from or dependent on the external influence. Basically, the evolu...

The proposed methodology is built upon the sequential use of specific tools, which are based on the integrated application of conceptual modelling and expert judgment elicitation techniques, decision analysis and probabilistic modelling, within the broader framework of the NetSyMoD methodology (Giupponi et al. 2008; www.netsymod.eu/), previously developed, facilitating the involvement of stakeh...

Fault tree analysis is often used to assess risks within industrial systems. The technique is commonly used although there are associated limitations in terms of accuracy and efficiency when dealing with large fault tree structures. The most recent approach to aid the analysis of the fault tree diagram is the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) methodology. To utilise the technique the fault tree str...

This study investigates the role of demographics, specifically gender, on susceptibility to three social influence types for certain products. Data were collected in two stages from business students at a large university. Analyses were performed at the construct and product levels. At the construct level, marital status and living situation were found to be the significant demographics for bot...